Low Probability, High Consequence. Forecaster's Blog

The last week has been in your face obvious that the backcountry danger rating was through the roof. Literally, hundreds of size 3 to size 4 avalanches were recorded and a notable size 4.5 in the Selkirks in the span of a week or so. There are still large avalanches size 3 and 4 being reported daily. You may have noticed the avalanche danger ratings slowly creepy down to the considerable and moderate ranges this week. While this is good news it's important to read the description of each danger rating and understand what they mean.

For example, Considerable is defined as;  Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
 
Moderate; Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

By no means does the definition of moderate paint a picture of safe avalanche conditions.  Good terrain management, spatial awareness, and good backcountry travel habits are key in keeping you safe.  The new forecaster's blog really drives home the point about the current state of the backcountry as we enter a low probability/ high consequence scenario.  Please read and share the blog and continue to make good choices out there! 

Weeping Wall , Hwy 93 N Control work. https://www.facebook.com/deryl.kelly.7/posts/10158381732380720

Sunshine Village Road. https://www.facebook.com/SunshineVillageResort/videos/1374854749232560/

Blog: http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/novemberfacetsmarchlphccycle